Avg index if passed
73.0 / 100
Popular Initiative•14 Jun 2026•in 2 months
Volksinitiative «Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz! (Nachhaltigkeitsinitiative)»
A popular initiative focused on sustainability and migration limits, centered on a proposal to keep Switzerland below 10 million residents before 2050.
Avg index if rejected
65.0 / 100
Forecast tickets
1
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This market already has live forecasts, but it is still using seeded history so the curve stays readable until more real participation accumulates.
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Swiss Prosperity Index
This baseline metric reflects the core tradeoff in the 10-million debate: Switzerland may gain output from growth, but that gain only counts if housing, mobility, nature, and lived quality of life remain strong enough to preserve broad prosperity by 2036.
How to read this index
The final score always runs from 0 to 100, where higher means a better overall Swiss welfare outcome by 2036. Individual ingredients do not all move in the same direction: higher GDP per capita can improve the index, while lower commute time can also improve it because that component is marked as lower is better.
Real GDP per capita
40%
Captures whether the Swiss economy is generating more inflation-adjusted prosperity per resident by 2036.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO national accounts / real GDP per capita
Housing affordability
20%
Measures whether households can still secure housing without an outsized rent or ownership burden.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO housing cost burden and affordability indicators
Average commute time
20%
Tests whether population pressure translates into longer daily travel and weaker transport quality.
Direction
Lower values raise the overall index
FSO mobility and commuting indicators
Biodiversity and green space
10%
Preserves the environmental side of the debate by rewarding healthy land use and accessible nature.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FOEN biodiversity and green-space proxy indicators
Subjective well-being
10%
Anchors the index in lived quality of life rather than relying only on hard macroeconomic outputs.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO subjective well-being index
Source notes
Baseline Progno launch metric combining prosperity, housing, congestion, environmental quality, and self-reported well-being.