Live initiatives
2
Swiss direct democracy, shadow-priced
A play-points market for Switzerland's future.
Progno mirrors Swiss federal initiatives with conditional welfare markets. Every participant gets one equal-weight forecast ticket per initiative. The crowd prices 2036 outcomes under both pass and fail scenarios.
Thin markets are shown with seeded history until enough real participation accumulates for a fully live curve.
Approved indices
2
Forecast tickets
27
Market board
Federal vote markets
Each card tracks the current crowd estimate for the 2036 welfare index if the measure passes versus if it fails. No real money, no balances, just public conditional forecasting.
Popular Initiative
Volksinitiative «Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz! (Nachhaltigkeitsinitiative)»
A popular initiative focused on sustainability and migration limits, centered on a proposal to keep Switzerland below 10 million residents before 2050.
Vote date
14 Jun 2026
in 2 months
If passes
73.0
If fails
65.0
Forecasts
1
Swiss Prosperity IndexSeeded history
Open market
Optional Referendum
Änderung vom 26. September 2025 des Bundesgesetzes über den zivilen Ersatzdienst (Zivildienstgesetz, ZDG)
An optional referendum on tighter civilian service rules, aimed at reducing military-to-civilian service switches and reshaping the replacement-service framework.
Vote date
14 Jun 2026
in 2 months
If passes
51.4
If fails
58.1
Forecasts
26
Swiss Civic Resilience IndexDemo crowd
Open market